Today’s future

How current hazard and risk may change

This objective is addressed by Work Package 2, led by UPC, and runs from October 2022 to May 2026.

The objective is to develop a generic methodology for a systemic multi-sectoral and multi-hazard risk assessment and its application to the four application case studies using the outputs of past events and the available information from earlier European projects and Copernicus services. Scenarios for future changes including climate change effects for multi-hazard risk assessment and potential changes of exposure, vulnerability and resilience will be co-developed for the four application sites. The generic methodology and the future scenarios will be applied to perform an integrated and systemic multi-sectoral and multi-hazard risk assessment for the four core sites including an uncertainty analysis of all components. Finally, datasets including all the available data of hazard, exposure and vulnerability in the four core sites for the current situation and the future scenarios will be created.

The work package is divided in the following tasks:


Guidelines and tools for the quantification of uncertainty in the risk components and the inclusion of uncertainty in the estimation of systemic risk for specific events.

Tools and guidelines for co-development of scenarios for different sectors: social science, human health, cultural heritage, environment and biodiversity, public financial management and key economic sectors.