How can we prepare for disasters that do not follow a single, predictable pathway?
This was the central question in Class 7 – Preparedness and resilience for managing the systemic risk of compounding disasters and hybrid threats, organised during the UCPN Evidence for Policy in Disaster Risk Management (DRM) Summer School held in Tallin, Estonia from 26 to 28 May 2026.
The class was facilitated by Esther El Haddad from the Emergency Response Coordination Centre, Cees van Westen from the Faculty of Geo‑Information Science and Earth Observation of the University of Twente and the PARATUS project, and Jana Wrange from the Estonian Academy of Security Sciences. Together with the participants, we explored how compounding disasters and hybrid threats can disrupt societies through cascading impacts across infrastructure, services, governance systems and vulnerable communities.
A central part of the class was the use of the PARATUS Systemic Risk Card Game, which helped participants think through complex disaster storylines in an interactive way. Four European scenarios were used: a major winter storm hitting northern Europe; wildfires during the tourist season in the Mediterranean; heatwaves and drought affecting Mediterranean cities; and large-scale flooding in Central Europe. For each storyline, participants identified hazards, exposed systems, cascading impacts, vulnerable groups, preparedness gaps and possible resilience actions.
The exercise showed how difficult it is to manage systemic risk when hazards interact with social, technological and institutional vulnerabilities. It also demonstrated the value of serious games and participatory methods for training civil protection professionals to think beyond single-hazard response and towards whole-of-society preparedness.
Many thanks to all participants and organisers for the active discussions, sharp insights and collaborative spirit in Tallinn.
